Europe is at a turning point: 1 on five citizens votes to extreme right, in France, Germany, Italy, Spain, another 1 votes socialist/communist, and the other 3 navigate in weak thinking/woke culture/mental confusion, voting from centre-left to anarchy parties like 5stars in Italy. President Trump and his companion Musk promise an American Rinascimento, BRICS are growing and Russian Federation show itself as a protector of traditional value in religion and families. EU economy and society is destroyed from an ideological climate change fanatism and more concretely from immigration impossible to integrate due to too high potential difference in culture, economic development and religion’s extremist. The crisis is not only political but organisational about the basic society structures, gender roles, family destruction and labour rejection of new generations. The situational “AS IS” scenario is to continue a slow decline, the end of an industrial economy, with permanent and growing political turmoil. based on ethnic difference and conflicting objectives of the various citizens groups, with a high probable transition from a USA indirect control and reference, to a China economic power using Europeans as low cost resources for its long term development plans for Chinese well being and technological innovation in AI and Space. Notwithstanding the probable change of American policies regarding woke culture in Universities, military expenditure and Space economy, the situation in Europe will not change easily because women values, young generation behaviours, growing power to islamic immigration and communist cultural penetration are all factors operating in favour of the present trends.
The socialist ideology is the only one surviving to change process of the last twenty years and finds a supporting area of 20/25% (Italy) mainly in State employees and pensioners, certainly not at the top of entrepreneurship and innovation processes. This area want to expand further the State intervention, see the Draghi report on EU, also accepting until 5/10% of GDP invested in military industry and war economy. This trend would assure a prevalence of a State depending people, so assuring a Socialist guidance of the so called democracy, which they accept only in case of socialist votes. The opposite of Milei policy in Argentina, in few words. This could be a first “TO BE” scenario, but I doubt on its probability because the political representatives of this old ideology seem to be very weak culturally and with growing contamination of American democrats views, distorted from woke trends and vacuus priorities. The real marxist intellectuals are sometimes more critical of the socialist representatives than right wing people. You can’t destroy tre society’s structure with gender cultures and other amenities and pretend to build a socialist community, which must be very organised and disciplined to assure economic growth. It could be possible only if China leadership highly probable in Europe will reaffirm socialist principles, as the governance of Xi Jinping tried to do internally but with scarce success in my opinion.
Do not forget that Nazism was National-Socialism, so extreme right is not economically very different from Left parties, except about national traditions and values. So a second alternative “TO BE” scenario can be an extreme right solution, waited in France from twenty years, from the time of Le Pen father, and recently done in Italy during the last two years, very rapidly growing in a depressed and recessionist Germany, where AFD reaches 18% and extreme left another 8%. This approach basically statalist in economy and nationalist in foreign policy could be very appreciated also in ex SSSR countries, whose citizens remain state minded but very proud of their new independence and national heritage, like Poland and Hungary. These right movements talk about deportation of immigrants and this is the right receipt in front of growing violence and arrogance of the immigration communities, especially the North African Muslim which seem looking also to overthrow local values to impose their habits and perhaps laws. Fears of violence to women and old people are not good consultant for next elections also in UK, not only in continental Europe. This could be a return to a Confederation of European States including also Russia as from the Westfalian peace, designing a Constitution not only a common money, the last thing to do like in USA, not the first choice. Due the long lasting destructive communication effort through media and social, it’s quite impossible for those parties to govern alone, but can be some center-right coalition like in Italian model can be also realised in other European countries.
