The present pandemic situation originated by Chinese Covid19 virus is certainly not new in world history and many times has been forecasted as a possible collateral effect of globalisation, which acts as an accelerator in a pandemic high speed diffusion. Also Bill Gates converted from technology guru to philanthropic major operator, from 2010 has been warning from time to time about the risk of a pandemic virus, especially for underdeveloped countries. Now a large number of countries in rich and poor regions of the world is impacted and the geopolitical asset of the world will be radically changed from the different bio political approach applied by different governments. At the center of the stage again China, which already exported its leadership through enormous infrastructural plan and investments in Africa, Southamerica, Artics and Europe and now together with virus origin, and this should be not forgot, is reinforcing its leadership offering helps to poor countries and relaunching its economy only partially closed anticipating other countries. This new situation and the deep needs of help from many countries, Italy first, will reduce the possibility of containment of its power from USA, Japan and India, due to the new strong humanitarian reputation, balancing the totalitarian regime image.
If China is carefully exploiting future on this pandemic events, Europe shows its political and cultural weakness and the risk of a total disintegration of EU is growing day by day, after Brexit and after the clear demonstration that the French-German condominium is totally biased and financially and economically obsolete. Russia is closing as usual on itself trying to survive without becoming also Chinese. Russia would need a Germany or Europe very strong to balance Chinese imperial leadership.Of course the Kremlin temptation is always the same: to leverage on internal resources and legendary sacrifice capability of its population. The only real successful bio politics have been in South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan, more technology based, with very low level of mortality, but those countries can’t leverage too much on these success due to their limited economic world weight. Japan also emerges very well from the crisis and can relaunch its influence but has many demographic constraints.
USA leadership is at risk from many years, being involved in many unsuccessful conflicts from Middle East to Afghanistan, reinforced by energetic empowerment due to shale oil, but now again depressed from the crisis of crude oil price, impacted by this deep change in world GDP growth and in social structure and values forecastable after the virus. Scientific and innovation approach and human resources richness will be the main strategic assets for the future role, especially if the new vaccine will be rapidly identified in USA, and of course the amount of investments the economic system can mobilise. Only USA ,notwithstanding the difficulties, could relaunch an Atlantic pact with Europe and Russia, containing China from North as they are already trying to contain it from Pacific side.
In Middle East Iran will be very depressed from pandemic virus and probably Israel and Turkey will take advantage, but always as regional powers more than worldwide influencers. Africa and South America will be the most penalised areas as usual, due to their chronic economic weakness, demographics and subaltern and corrupted culture of their dominant classes.China will have no obstacles in consolidating the present leadership and exploiting policies in these areas.Once again the main area of rivalry between the two world leaders will be Euroasia arena (the classical Mc Kinder Heartland extended) and Middle East area.
Social and cultural values in the main countries will change a lot, digital tools will definitively succeed as a major work transformation, so will be intelligent automation along all the supply chains operations. Environmental policies will be strongly reaffirmed by people and way of living and consuming will also be modified, with many industry like automotive more depressed, and other emerging to big success like chemicals/healthy industry. New clean and robotised agriculture will attract more resources, so like Space economy. It’ a new world to discover for the young generations surviving better to pandemic virus. A good heritage for the new humans.
