USA-China encirclement of old Europe is the main geopolitical theme for the world in next 30 years. Chinese geopolitical approach develops both the Mackinder vision of heartland domination in Central Asia, and of Mahan about the maritime power, basis of Victorian globalisation UK driven and of USA maritime ring after the second world war. The growth of Chinese investments in the world, about 43% more in the last ten years and the present cyberwar, emphasise the attention of politics on Chinese encirclement of USA strategy. But the interests of USA in the world based on China containment and Middle East control, are also anti Europe and pushing Russia to China alliance, under evaluate the role of Russia in Europe. The result of the two main powers game is in any case the weakening of Europe as the main historical factory of economic and social development and the house of cultural civilisation in the world.
This process will accelerate in the next ten to thirty years, creating a new world order similar to that pre-Kissinger, of cold war time, with only two main powers, where USA will remain the global leader but China will overcome their performances in many areas, mainly technological ones. Other nations like Germany, India, Indonesia, Japan will be economically well developed, but very far from the two first ones and politically not so relevant. Europe will be inevitably reducing its influence as a whole entity, disrupted by poor results in technology and economy and disrupted by old national spirits revival. The European political reunification was promoted by USA in anti-Soviet strategy typical of cold war in the bipolar world USA-URSS. It was the fear of URSS domination to push Europeans to political integration in the western part: the enlargement to East was again created by the fear of those nations to remain under URSS domination, fear conditioning also today their choices and identity.
In the new USA-China bipolar world, no place remain to a political European Union, running every nation to survive and develop as satellites of one or the other main powers. The Iron Curtain was emphasising the strategical role of Europe on the border, the Pacific new Curtain is in the Yellow Sea, attention on Europe will depend from the strategical repositioning of Russia Federation. Here we find the most important working area for a clever diplomacy. President Trump had the intuition of the need to avoid Russia-China alliance, pushed from an idiot Obama foreign policy. The troubles connected to the Puritan American values and Washington political lobbies, paralysed the appeasement process to Russia.
American elites under evaluate Russia because of its economic medium sized power compared with USA military budget. And in the Eltsin period they tried to get Siberian resources for American companies. Breaking up the Russia-China entente is vice versa the basic interest of Europe in the new world order, to have a Russian gate to break up the encirclement. Political myopia of Germany elites didn’t help to solve this vital geopolitical conundrum. So EU should approach vigorously all the opened questions on Russia- Europe relationship, like Crimea and Ukraine, acknowledging an adequate role to Russian power in the world multipolar governance and attracting future Russian elites to Europe, to leverage together on the enormous Siberian resources before the complete Chinese control on the area for demographic reasons and geopolitical vision.
To aim at these objectives Europe must put on the table with USA these basic geopolitical concepts, ignored by presumptuous American diplomats, selling the new positioning as a fundamental contribution to China containment policies. Russian Federation has a GDP very low, less than Italian with 2,5 times the population, so its military power is based mainly on URSS nuclear heritage. The repositioning of Russia is in the strict interest of Russian people first of all, but also of all Europeans in this new bipolar world. The UK traditional foreign policy to avoid a Germany-Russia connection, followed fro USA strategist, must be abandoned in the interest first af all of Russia, but also of EU and USA. Russian values and culture are absolutely nearer to Western World than to Asia, as Peter the Great stressed, and not even the common Communist faith consolidated relationships between URSS and China: Putin knows very well those roots of mutual fears and diffidences.
